Southeastern North Carolina Economic & Real Estate Intelligence Report: Late 2025 Outlook

Executive Market Synthesis

The economic and real estate landscape of the Wilmington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in late 2025 represents a complex inflection point, characterized by a transition from the frenetic post-pandemic appreciation era to a period of stabilized recalibration. By the fourth quarter of 2025, the region—encompassing New Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick counties—has firmly exited the acute seller’s market that defined the early 2020s, entering a phase marked by rising inventory, lengthening days on market, and nuanced price discovery. While the median sales price continues to show resilience, hovering in the low-to-mid $400,000s, the underlying mechanics of the market have shifted fundamentally, influenced by broader macroeconomic pressures, local infrastructure bottlenecks, and a rapidly evolving insurance paradigm.

Economic drivers in the region remain robust yet are facing significant headwinds. The "Blue Economy," anchored by the Port of Wilmington, is in the midst of a contentious expansion debate regarding the dredging of the Cape Fear River, pitting necessary economic competitiveness against environmental preservation. Simultaneously, the region's "Knowledge Economy," led by fintech giants like Live Oak Bank and nCino, continues to integrate artificial intelligence into banking workflows, sustaining high-wage employment growth despite broader tech sector volatility. The resurgence of the film industry, reclaiming the moniker "Hollywood East" with over $300 million in direct spending, provides a critical buffer for the local service and short-term rental economies.

However, the late 2025 outlook is tempered by acute challenges. Infrastructure deficits, most notably the $773 million funding gap for the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge replacement, threaten to stifle connectivity between the commercial core and the rapidly expanding dormitory communities of Brunswick County. Furthermore, a developing "insurance cliff," driven by rising reinsurance costs and climate risk modeling, is reshaping affordability calculations for coastal property owners, with rate hikes scheduled through 2026. This report provides an exhaustive analysis of these intersecting trends, offering a granular view of the Wilmington market as it navigates the closing months of 2025.

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I. Macroeconomic Context and Regional Demographics

Migration Patterns and Population Dynamics

The demographic engine driving the Wilmington MSA continues to be fueled by net inward migration, though the velocity and composition of this migration have evolved by late 2025. The region remains a primary beneficiary of the "Sun Belt shift," attracting residents from high-tax, high-cost jurisdictions in the Northeast (specifically New York) and the West Coast. However, unlike the indiscriminate influx seen in 2021, the 2025 migration wave is more stratified.

Data from late 2025 indicates that the Myrtle Beach/Wilmington region ranked as the number one move-in destination in the United States for the third consecutive year, underscoring the enduring appeal of the coastal lifestyle combined with relative affordability compared to Tier 1 metros. Nevertheless, the profile of the newcomer is shifting. While retirees (Baby Boomers) continue to dominate moves into Brunswick County—where the homeowner-to-renter ratio among new move-ins is heavily skewed toward ownership—New Hanover County is seeing a persistent influx of remote-capable professionals.

The persistence of remote and hybrid work models into late 2025 has cemented Wilmington’s status as a "Zoom Town." This has structural implications for housing demand, as these buyers prioritize dedicated home office space and high-speed connectivity, often bringing salaries pegged to higher-cost labor markets. This wage arbitrage supports price stability in premium neighborhoods despite higher interest rates. However, data suggests a slight cooling in the "work-from-anywhere" frenzy, with a return to regional migration patterns where moves are driven by proximity to family and regional employment hubs like Raleigh and Charlotte.

Table 1: Migration Trends & Demographic Shifts (2025)

Demographic Metric	Trend Direction	Key Insights & Driver
Top Origin States	NY, CA, NJ	High-tax exodus continues; "half-backs" relocating from Florida also noted.
Move-In Ranking	#1 Nationally	Myrtle Beach/Wilmington region tops list for 3rd consecutive year.
Brunswick County	Retiree Dominant	54% of moves from within NC; High owner-occupancy ratio (67%).
New Hanover County	Professional/Tech	Attracting Gen Y/Millennials; Median age 41.2; High educational attainment (47% Bachelor's+).
Remote Work Impact	Sustained	Shift from "temporary escape" to permanent relocation; drives demand for home offices.

The Interest Rate Environment and Affordability

By late 2025, the local real estate market operates under the weight of sustained elevated interest rates. While there was optimism for significant rate cuts, the economic reality of late 2025 sees 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering near 6.8% to 6.9%, influenced by persistent inflationary pressures and federal caution. This rate environment has created a "lock-in" effect that is slowly beginning to thaw but continues to restrict the supply of existing resale homes, as homeowners with sub-4% mortgages remain reluctant to sell.

The affordability crunch is palpable. With median home prices stabilizing above $420,000 and borrowing costs remaining high, the qualifying income for a median-priced home in New Hanover County has shifted upward, pushing entry-level buyers toward higher-density housing or further into the periphery of Pender and Brunswick counties. The market has responded with a surge in demand for rental properties and "build-to-rent" communities, as potential buyers are sidelined by the cost of capital.

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II. Quantitative Analysis of the Housing Market (Late 2025)

Inventory and Supply Dynamics

The defining characteristic of the Wilmington housing market in late 2025 is the rapid accumulation of inventory. After years of scarcity, active listings have surged. Data from late 2025 indicates a year-over-year increase in active listings ranging from 16.5% to as high as 27.5% depending on the specific month and sub-market analyzed.

By October 2025, active for-sale inventory in the Wilmington market stood at approximately 1,004 units on major platforms, with broader MLS data showing upwards of 4,000 active listings across the MSA. This increase is not solely driven by new listings, which have seen fluctuations—dropping 1.4% in some months while rising slightly in others—but rather by a decrease in absorption rates. Homes are simply sitting on the market longer, allowing inventory to build.

Table 2: Key Housing Market Metrics (Wilmington MSA, Late 2025)

Metric	Value (Approx.)	Trend (YoY)	Implications
Median Sales Price	$421,167 - $434,250	+2.2% to +6.1%	Price growth has slowed significantly but remains positive; no crash evident.
Active Inventory	~4,000+ units	+16.5% to +27.5%	Buyers have more choices; scarcity premium is vanishing.
Months of Supply	3.8 - 4.7 months	+19.3%	Approaching a "balanced market" (5-6 months); favors buyers more than 2023.
Days on Market (DOM)	71 - 72 days	+24.1% to +24.6%	Sellers must be patient; pricing strategy is critical.
Sale-to-List Ratio	~98.2%	Stable/Slight Decline	Bidding wars are rare; negotiation is back.

Pricing Trends and Valuation

Contrary to fears of a market correction, property values in Wilmington have not collapsed. Instead, they have achieved a "soft landing." Forecasts and data from late 2025 show median sales prices continuing to rise, albeit at a much slower, more sustainable pace of roughly 2% to 6% year-over-year.

However, a divergence is emerging. Well-maintained homes in desirable neighborhoods (e.g., Landfall, Historic District) continue to command full asking price, while overpriced inventory or properties requiring significant work are seeing price cuts. Approximately 68.5% of sales in late 2025 occurred under the list price, a significant shift from the over-asking trend of previous years.

Forecasts for late 2024 through October 2025 predicted a period of flatness, with some models even suggesting a negligible dip (-0.1%) in early 2025 before returning to positive growth of around 3.6% by late 2025. This prediction appears to have materialized, with the market showing resilience against high rates.

The Shift to a Balanced Market

The metrics unequivocally point toward a balanced market. With months of supply rising to between 3.8 and 4.7 months, the leverage has shifted away from sellers. A "balanced" market is typically defined as 5 to 6 months of supply; Wilmington is rapidly approaching this threshold.

This shift is evidenced by the "Sale-to-List Ratio," which hovers around 98.2%, and the increasing frequency of price improvements. Real estate professionals note that "overpriced homes are sitting longer," necessitating accurate pricing strategies. The days of "waiving inspections" and "sight-unseen" offers are largely over, replaced by a more deliberate, negotiation-heavy transaction process.

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III. Neighborhood and Sub-Market Deep Dive

Downtown Wilmington & The Emerging Districts

Downtown Wilmington is undergoing a profound transformation driven by mixed-use redevelopment and the maturation of distinct "districts."

The Soda Pop District:

Located roughly between 8th and 12th Streets along Princess Street, the Soda Pop District has evolved from a light industrial zone into a vibrant commercial hub by late 2025. Anchored by the adaptive reuse of the former Coca-Cola bottling plant (the "Bottle Works" building), the district now houses the YMCA of Southeastern North Carolina's association offices, alongside a mix of tenants like Hi-Wire Brewing and Cugino Forno.27

Developers Andy Hewitt and Sandy Thorpe have driven an $8 million investment into the area, with plans continuing into late 2025 for new restaurants and retail at 920 Princess St and potential mixed-use projects along Market Street.29 This district attracts a younger demographic and investors looking for short-term rental opportunities due to its proximity to the historic core.30

Project Grace & The Civic Core:

The long-awaited Project Grace—a public-private partnership to redevelop a three-acre county-owned block—is reaching critical milestones. As of late 2025, the new downtown Public Library on Grace Street is open, having welcomed patrons in October 2025.31 The Cape Fear Museum is in the process of transitioning, with the Market Street location closing on December 31, 2025, to facilitate the movement of artifacts to the new facility, which is targeting a mid-2026 opening.31

However, the commercial component faced a setback when a deal to bring a much-needed grocery store to the adjacent 305 Chestnut St property fell through in December 2025, leaving a gap in amenities for downtown residents.34

Coastal Communities: Wrightsville vs. Carolina Beach

The barrier island markets continue to operate with distinct dynamics, insulated somewhat by extreme scarcity but challenged by insurance costs.

Wrightsville Beach:

As the premier luxury market, Wrightsville Beach maintains a high barrier to entry with a median home value exceeding $1.6 million.36 Inventory remains incredibly tight (approx. 45 units for sale), and the market is driven by cash-heavy, high-net-worth individuals less sensitive to mortgage rates.36 By late 2025, the luxury segment here showed strength, with closed transactions in the $2M+ range jumping significantly.38

Carolina Beach & Kure Beach:

Offering a more accessible price point (Median ~$550k), Carolina Beach attracts a mix of investors and second-home buyers. However, inventory here has risen more sharply than in Wrightsville Beach. In the $600k-$1M range, active listings surged by 85%, outpacing sales growth.38 This suggests that the mid-tier coastal market is softer, likely due to the sensitivity of investment buyers to interest rates and insurance hikes. Nevertheless, the ROI for short-term rentals remains a key driver, with gross annual revenue potential estimated between $25k and $50k.39

Master-Planned Communities

Riverlights:

Situated on the Cape Fear River, Riverlights continues to be the volume leader for sales in 2025.40 The community is expanding its commercial footprint with "7Bridge," a 37-acre commercial village designed to serve the southern corridor. By late 2025, new amenities like the "Riverhouse" recreation center are nearing completion, and plans for a senior living facility (Luminance) and retail outlets (Refuel) are solidifying the "live-work-play" model.41 The diversity of housing product—from townhomes in the $300s to custom riverfront estates—insulates it from single-segment volatility.

Landfall:

This established country club community remains a bastion of stability. Home values here have appreciated by 6.4% over the past year, reaching an average of over $1.1 million.23 The flight to quality has benefited Landfall, as buyers prioritize established amenities and security.

Emerging Corridors

Pender County & Northern New Hanover:

Areas like Scotts Hill and Hampstead are experiencing rapid growth due to land availability. New flood maps effective January 2025 are impacting development in Pender County, expanding flood zones and potentially raising costs for new construction east of US Hwy 421.43 Despite this, the Hampstead corridor remains a primary relief valve for housing demand.

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IV. Economic Pillars and Industrial Outlook

The Port of Wilmington: Expansion vs. Environment

The Port of Wilmington remains a cornerstone of the regional economy, contributing billions in economic impact. In late 2025, the narrative is dominated by the ambitious but controversial "Wilmington Harbor Navigation Improvement Project," which seeks to deepen the shipping channel from 42 feet to 47 feet.

The Economic Case:

Proponents, including the NC Ports Authority and the Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, argue that deepening is existential. With global shipping shifting toward "Post-Panamax" and "Gen III" vessels, Wilmington risks obsolescence if it cannot accommodate fully loaded deep-draft ships.5 The port has already invested in cold-chain infrastructure (over 1,400 refrigerated plugs), positioning itself as a "boutique gateway" for pharmaceuticals and agriculture.45

The Opposition & Challenges:

Environmental groups and some community advocates vehemently oppose the dredging, citing irreversible damage to the Cape Fear River ecosystem, potential saltwater intrusion into aquifers, and impacts on bird sanctuaries.44 Furthermore, economic headwinds in 2025, including tariffs and global trade uncertainty, have led to a downturn in volume, complicating the immediate justification for the billion-dollar project.5 The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently evaluating public comments following the release of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement in late 2025.6

The Technology and Fintech Sector

Wilmington’s tech sector continues to punch above its weight, centered on the "cloud banking" ecosystem spawned by Live Oak Bank.

nCino's AI Pivot:

In late 2025, nCino (NASDAQ: NCNO) is aggressively rolling out its "Banking Advisor," a generative AI tool integrated into its platform. Recognized with industry awards in October 2025, this tool represents a strategic shift toward AI-driven efficiency in banking compliance and lending.7 This innovation reinforces Wilmington's status as a fintech hub, attracting talent that supports the high-end housing market.

Live Oak Bank:

Live Oak continues to deepen its community ties, launching initiatives like "Live Oak Bank Day" to engage small businesses.48 The bank's stability and growth trajectory provide a steady stream of high-income employment, vital for sustaining demand in neighborhoods like Autumn Hall and Landfall.

The Film Industry Resurgence

The film industry in 2025 has been a bright spot, helping to diversify the local economy. With over $300 million in in-state spending in 2024 and continued activity in 2025, the sector is robust.

Infrastructure Growth:

Dark Horse Stages has completed a $20 million expansion, adding two new 20,000-square-foot sound stages.9 Cinespace Studios (formerly EUE/Screen Gems) continues to anchor the region.

Production Activity:

High-profile productions such as "The Summer I Turned Pretty" (Season 3) and new series like "The Waterfront" are filming locally.10 This activity generates immediate demand for short-term housing (rentals for cast/crew) and supports local tradespeople, buffering the economy against slowdowns in other sectors.

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V. Infrastructure and Urban Development

The Cape Fear Memorial Bridge Crisis

Perhaps the single most critical infrastructure challenge facing the region in late 2025 is the replacement of the aging Cape Fear Memorial Bridge. The bridge is the primary artery connecting New Hanover and Brunswick counties, and its functional obsolescence threatens the region's commuter integration.

Funding Gap:

As of late 2025, there is a staggering $773 million funding gap for the replacement project, estimated to cost over $1.1 billion total.11 While the project received a $242 million federal grant, the pausing of grants for review by federal administrations and the sheer scale of the cost have left local leaders scrambling.11

Implications:

The uncertainty surrounding the bridge funding—and the potential for tolling or bond referendums—introduces risk for real estate appreciation in northern Brunswick County (Leland, Belville). If tolling becomes the only viable funding mechanism, it could dampen the appeal of these "bedroom communities" for workers commuting to Wilmington. Conversely, a funded solution would unlock massive long-term value.

Project Grace and Civic Redevelopment

The transformation of downtown's civic block is proceeding, albeit with adjustments. The opening of the new library in late 2025 marks a successful first phase. The relocation of the Cape Fear Museum is a complex logistical operation involving over 400 artifacts, with the transition expected to last through mid-2026. This consolidation of civic assets is intended to catalyze further private investment in the northern downtown district, although the failure to secure a grocer highlights the difficulties in attracting retail services to urban cores amidst high construction costs.

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VI. The Insurance and Climate Paradigm

A critical, often underappreciated factor influencing the Wilmington real estate market in late 2025 is the escalating cost and complexity of property insurance. This "hidden cost" is actively reshaping buyer qualification and ownership expenses.

Rate Hikes and Policy Changes

The North Carolina Rate Bureau and the Department of Insurance agreed to a settlement resulting in a cumulative 15% increase in base homeowners' insurance rates, split between 2025 and 2026 (7.5% each year). However, this statewide average masks the severity of the situation in coastal counties like New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender.

In these coastal territories, the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association (NCIUA)—the "market of last resort" or "Beach Plan"—is increasingly the only option for wind/hail coverage. Effective late 2025 and into 2026, dwelling policy rates are subject to proposals for massive hikes, with requests as high as 68.3% over two years for certain dwelling policies (rentals/non-owner occupied). For standard homeowners (HO-3), coastal territories are seeing wind rate adjustments and deductible changes that significantly increase out-of-pocket risk.

Flood Map Revisions

FEMA has finalized new Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for Pender County (effective Jan 17, 2026) and is updating maps for New Hanover County. These updates generally expand Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) due to updated modeling of storm surge and riverine flooding.

• Implication: Properties previously considered "X Zone" (low risk) may now require mandatory flood insurance if carrying a federally backed mortgage. This adds hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars to the monthly payment, directly reducing buyer purchasing power.

Strategic Response

Real estate agents and sellers are having to adapt. "Selling As-Is" has become more common, accounting for 25% of NC sales in 2025, as sellers try to offload properties without engaging in costly pre-listing repairs, particularly in flood-prone areas. Disclosure laws have also been strengthened, requiring explicit statements regarding a property’s flood history and zone status.

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VII. Investment Analysis: Rentals and Returns

Long-Term Rentals (LTR)

The rental market in Wilmington is stabilizing after the post-COVID surge. Vacancy rates have ticked up slightly as new multi-family inventory (such as the Argento at Riverlights) comes online. Landlords are advised to be cautious with pricing; the days of double-digit rent increases are over. The focus in late 2025 is on tenant retention and competitive pricing to minimize void periods.

Short-Term Rentals (STR)

The STR market, particularly in beach towns and the Soda Pop/Cargo Districts, remains viable but competitive.

• Carolina Beach: Offers a sweet spot for investors, with entry prices around $550k and gross revenue potential of $25k-$50k. It is less capital-intensive than Wrightsville Beach.
• Wrightsville Beach: Remains a "blue chip" asset class. While yields may be lower due to high entry costs ($1.6M+), the asset appreciation and stability of demand act as a wealth preservation vehicle.
• Downtown: The Soda Pop District is emerging as a niche for STRs due to its walkability to breweries and the new YMCA, appealing to younger travelers.

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VIII. Marketing and Industry Evolution: Winning in a Balanced Market

In Wilmington's 2026 balanced market, where over 4,000 listings compete for attention and sit for over 70 days, passive marketing is a recipe for failure. The key to success is no longer just getting a listing online; it's about making that listing stand out to a discerning, often remote, buyer. This requires a fundamental shift from static photos to dynamic, narrative-driven video content.

8.1 The Failure of Static Photos in a High-Inventory Market

When a buyer from New York is scrolling through 50 homes in their price range, a photo gallery is not enough. It cannot convey the value of a fortified roof that slashes insurance premiums, explain the lifestyle of the Soda Pop District, or build the trust needed for a remote purchase. In this environment, motion is what stops the scroll, and a story is what generates a lead.

8.2 The VidFlipper Solution: A Revenue Engine for Wilmington Agents

VidFlipper is the automation tool that empowers Wilmington agents to become dominant digital marketers. It's designed to transform the area's unique challenges and buyer profiles into targeted, revenue-generating video campaigns—all in under 60 seconds per video.

Actionable VidFlipper Plays for the Wilmington Market:

• The "Insurance Cliff" Educational Series (Generate Authority & Leads):

  • Scenario: Out-of-state buyers are fearful of the coastal insurance market. You want to be the agent they trust.
  • Execution: Use VidFlipper to create a 60-second "Wilmington Homeowner's Insurance Guide." Use the "Record my voice" feature to personally explain the NCIUA ("Beach Plan") and the importance of a new roof or elevation certificate. The platform's dynamic "karaoke" captions will automatically highlight key terms, making the complex topic easy to understand. Posting this content establishes you as the go-to expert for navigating coastal risk, attracting savvy, high-value clients.

• The "Zoom Town" Value Proposition (Attract High-Income Remote Buyers):

  • Scenario: You have a listing in Landfall and want to attract a high-earning remote worker from New Jersey.
  • Execution: Create a video that screams "value arbitrage." Use VidFlipper's AI Script Generator with a "Marketing Focus" to create a compelling script: "This is what $1 million gets you in Wilmington. What does it get you in Montclair?" The professional AI Voiceover narrates a tour that emphasizes the dedicated home office, the large yard, and the proximity to the beach. This video, run as an ad targeting high-cost-of-living zip codes in the Northeast, is a direct-response lead generation tool.

• The "Cape Fear Bridge" Narrative Control:

  • Scenario: You're selling a beautiful home in Brunswick County, but buyers are hesitant because of the bridge uncertainty.
  • Execution: Address the objection head-on with a VidFlipper video. Acknowledge the commute but pivot to the unbeatable value. Use text overlays to show a side-by-side comparison: "Pay for a Bridge, or Pay $150k More for the Same House in New Hanover County?" Use the motion zoom to pan across the extra half-acre of land or the bonus room they get for their money. This transparent approach builds trust and helps close deals that other agents might lose.

In Wilmington's balanced market, the agent who tells the most compelling and targeted story wins. VidFlipper automates the storytelling process, enabling agents to efficiently address buyer concerns and attract high-value clients, turning market friction into a competitive advantage.

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Conclusion and 2026 Outlook

As Wilmington moves into the final months of 2025, the real estate market has successfully engineered a soft landing. The frenetic energy of the pandemic years has dissipated, replaced by a more traditional, cyclical market rhythm.

Key Takeaways:

1. Buyers have regained leverage: With inventory up over 20% and days on market exceeding two months, buyers can negotiate on price and repairs.
2. Prices are sticky: Despite higher rates and inventory, median prices remain stable, supported by continued migration and a diverse local economy (Port, Tech, Film).
3. The Insurance Threat is Real: Rising premiums and new flood maps constitute the single biggest threat to affordability and transaction volume in 2026.
4. Infrastructure is the Wild Card: The resolution of the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge funding and the outcome of the Port dredging project will determine the long-term trajectory of the region's industrial and commuter value propositions.

Forecast for Early 2026:

The market is expected to remain flat to slightly appreciative (roughly 3-4%) through 2026.24 Inventory will likely peak in Q1 2026 before the spring selling season absorbs some excess supply. The region's long-term fundamentals remain exceptionally strong, provided that infrastructure investments can keep pace with the population growth that shows no sign of stopping.